Quotient

The prediction markets where Q sees an edge.

Q prices every market and finds many mispriced. Signals are the rare ones where the spread is wide and the correction is near.

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We price every market ourselves.

Four steps produce one number. Only the markets Q expects to correct become signals.

The rules.

We read the resolution criteria and find the edge cases other traders misread.

The research.

We research each scenario across 6,000+ global sources, from wire services to defense research to global polling.

The experts.

We weight forecasts from 1,000+ ranked geopolitics experts on X. Every call they make is scored.

The forecast.

The scenario analysis becomes one calibrated probability.

One number. The fair price.

A market trading away from it is mispriced. Only the markets Q expects to correct become signals.

Polymarket
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by July 31, 2026?
Q → NO
Q fair price
27¢
Market
72¢
Spread
45¢

Iran's internet is already throttled, which lowers the baseline the resolution rule measures against. A qualifying blackout would need traffic below anything the regime has ever run. The market misreads the rule.

Q forecast · July 6, 2026

Anchored to the rules and the sources.

Markets diverge from the fair price when traders over- or under-react to news. The spread identifies the mispriced contract and the direction. We publish it as a signal. Q's read holds to what the rules and the sources say.

Research draws on
RANDIPSOSCENTCOM
6,000+ global sources · 1,000+ ranked geopolitics experts

Every expert call is scored against outcomes. Read the latest audit, Whose Iran calls held up?

One signal, start to finish.

Every signal is published with its entry, thesis, and take-profit, then tracked in public through the 7-day hold, or to resolution if earlier. This is one, replayed end to end.

Signal replay · closed June 15, 2026
NO

GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026?

+245% realized return

Headlines said the release was imminent and the market priced YES at 71¢. Q read the strict naming rule and the June 15 deadline and priced it at 59¢.

The signal · NO at 29¢ → 100¢ at resolution

Every signal is tracked like this.

1 · Signal published · NO at 29¢2 · Market holds above Q fair3 · Resolved NO · June 15
Q forecast · dots Market · YES

A transparent track record.

The average return of every published signal, computed live from market prices.

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Every live signal, with the entry, take-profit, thesis, and live Open P/L.

Membership

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  • Every live signal, open and closed
  • Take-profit targets and live tracking
  • Link to each market
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