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The markets where Q sees an edge.

Q prices markets independently and finds many mispriced. Signals are the rare ones where Q identifies an edge and expects a near-term correction.

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Illustration of Q pricing a field of markets and elevating one rare Signal. The example shows a market price of 48 cents, Q fair price at 68 cents, a 20 cent edge, a near-term catalyst, a 58 cent target, and a 7-day outlook.

This is a Signal.

A forecast tells you what Q expects. A Signal adds three things: an edge, a near-term reason the mispricing may correct, and a defined exit.

POLYMARKETNOSIGNAL PUBLISHED · JUNE 2

GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026?

Q fair price · NO41¢
Market price · NO29¢
Spread12¢

Hold 7 days

+154% paper return

Based on the market price on June 9, seven days after publication.

WHAT Q SAW
  • The contract counted only a model released under the exact name GPT-5.6 by June 15.
  • Q separated broad release expectations from that exact naming test.
  • That reading put Q's fair price for NO at 41¢ while the market offered NO at 29¢.
  • The fixed thirteen-day window gave the pricing gap a near-term path to close.
Prices shown for the NO contract
  • Market price
  • Q fair price
  • Spread
  • Q updates
  1. Signal published · NO at 29¢
  2. Spread persisted
  3. Market later resolved NO · June 15

Every signal. Every outcome.

The Track Record measures every Signal from its published reference price to its price on day seven, using the resolution price when the market settles sooner. Each Signal's take-profit is a separate exit reference that may be reached earlier.

Average paper return per SignalAcross published Signals with measurable paper results. Open paper positions are marked to the current market price.
Positive closed paper positionsShown once a position closes.
Published SignalsLive from the published record.
Selected closed paper resultsAwaiting live data
ContractSideEntryExitReturnStatus
Paper performance · Hold 7 days

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under- or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.

What goes into a Q forecast.

Q combines broad evidence with scored expert judgment to form an independent view of each market.

6,000+global sources

Quotient reviews primary records, structured data, polling, and independent reporting.

1,000+ranked geopolitics experts

Q tracks expert forecasts and scores every call against outcomes to identify who adds signal before the outcome is known.

RESEARCH DRAWS ON
ReutersRANDBloombergIPSOSAFPThe New York TimesCENTCOMPoliticoThe GuardianFinancial Times

How Q keeps improving.

Quotient’s Research Lab studies forecast outcomes to improve how Q weighs evidence, evaluates experts, and identifies Signals.

WHAT QUOTIENT’S RESEARCH LAB TESTS

  1. Call accuracy

    Calibration, expert records, and the evidence that improves Q's calls.

  2. Signal outcomes

    Entry timing, catalysts, exit windows, and the rules that improve Signal results.

  3. Forecasting beyond markets

    The same forecasting discipline applied to geopolitical, policy, and business questions beyond traded markets.

Recent report from Quotient's Research Lab
Expert Index chart plotting Iran predictions by whether they held up and how early each call appeared

Whose Iran calls held up?

The Iran Expert Index scored forecasts against outcomes to identify who added signal before the outcome was known and what Q should weight in future forecasts.

541 predictions126 experts
Read the report

What members receive.

Membership opens the full forecasting layer with every qualifying Signal, Q's broader forecasts across markets, and the complete record behind each call.

Every qualifying Signal

Receive every Signal when Q publishes one. A market must show both an edge and a near-term reason the mispricing may close.

All Q forecasts

See Q's broader forecast coverage across markets, including forecasts that never become Signals.

Complete Signal context

See the direction, reference entry, Q fair price, market price, spread, thesis, take-profit, and market link.

The complete track record

Review every open and closed paper position and follow each Signal from publication through its recorded outcome.

Every Q forecast, or the weekly read.

Membership includes every qualifying Signal, every Q forecast, and the complete record behind each call. The free weekly read shares selected research and what Quotient is learning.

Quotient membership

Full forecasting access

One membership. Choose annual or monthly billing.

  • Every qualifying Signal
  • All Quotient forecasts across all markets Q covers
  • Full context for every Signal
  • The complete record of open and closed paper positions
$400/ year

works out to $33 / month

Four months free

Know what you are buying.

When and where are new Signals published?

Any new Signals for the day are published by 11:00 a.m. ET. Log in to your Quotient Signals account to view them in the member dashboard. If no market clears Quotient's Signal standard, no new Signal is published that day.

Is Quotient Signals a trading platform?

Quotient Signals publishes prediction-market research. It does not operate a trading venue, accept customer trading funds, place trades, or custody assets. Members decide whether and how to act on the research and transact directly with third-party venues, subject to each venue's rules.

What does the track record include?

The aggregate track record covers published Signals with measurable paper results under Hold 7 days. The win rate uses closed paper positions only. Open paper positions are marked to the current market price. The public ledger shows the highest ChatGPT-market paper return and the two highest non-ChatGPT closed paper returns. Members can inspect the complete row-level record. View the track record

How are paper results calculated?

Each Signal receives an equal $100 paper stake at its published reference entry. The paper position closes after seven days or when the market resolves, if earlier. Return is the percentage change in the cost of the signaled side from entry to close. Until then, the position is marked to the current market price. Read the methodology

Why might my result differ from the paper result?

Paper results do not represent actual customer trades. They exclude fees, bid-ask spread, slippage, taxes, and other execution constraints. Liquidity, position limits, venue access, fill availability, timing, and the price available when a person acts can also affect an actual outcome.

How do membership billing and cancellation work?

Annual membership is $400 and monthly membership is $49.99. Membership renews at the selected interval until canceled. Cancel before the next renewal date to avoid the next charge. Access continues through the end of the paid billing period. Membership Terms · Auto-Renewal Terms

Can I access every linked market from my location?

Quotient Signals membership provides research access. Whether you can use a linked trading venue depends on your location, eligibility, and that venue's rules. Quotient does not operate those venues or determine eligibility.

One membership, every Signal.

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